Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Mr. QID's Wild Ride = How to Make Fast Money

You gotta love today's volatility in the Nasdaq. This is the kind of market where day trading the Ultrashort QID can make you some fast money.

Lets take a look how 6 trades executed today (both long and short) could have made you somewhere between $1,000 - $3,000 or more.

(click on chart for larger image)

The morning started with a 2.7% gap down in the QID (meaning the QQQQ's gapped up). Nasdaq weakened after the open and the gap was starting to be filled. But it got stuck in a trading range from about 10am until 11:40am. Between 11:40 and 11:50 there appeared to be two quick attempts at a rally in the QQQQ, but they failed, setting up the PERFECT trade trigger as the 4-EMA crossed the 8-EMA at 12:10pm. After that it was off to the races as Nasdaq started to crumble and QID rose.

The UP part of QID's wild ride seemed to finally came to an end at 1:11pm when a huge volume spike signaled SELL. Usually I wait for the crossover to sell, but in this big surge, volume trumps.

(click on chart for larger image)

But the UP ride was not over! At 1:50pm another BUY signal on the crossover of both the 4 and 8 EMA's over the 21-EMA gave a powerful and quick move that climaxed with a volume spike SELL signal 5 minutes later. If you were not quick on the trigger and your eyes glued to the chart screen you would have missed this trade!

After dipping and then consolidating between 2:10pm and 2:40pm while the Fed Beige book was being digested there was a reversal in QID (meaning NASDAQ qas starting to rally off its intra-day low). THIS IS WHERE IT GETS SLIGHTLY CONFUSING. Yes, you can short QID. So what do you get when you SHORT the ULTRASHORT? You get an ULTRA-LONG position (like QLD). So why not buy QLD you ask? Well you have a much larger bid-ask spread with QLD and its easier to just short QID in my opinion from a trading mechanics standpoint.

The first short sell signal came on the crossover at 2:38pm. As you can see from the chart you could have repeatedly sold short and
covered QID as NASDAQ rebounded into the close.

TRADE SUMMARY & PROFIT POTENTIAL:
Three scenarios for trading positions sizes of 500shares, 1,000 shares and 1,500 shares.

The trading prices below were taken at the highest or lowest (worst) at the 1-minute bar to create a reasonable trade as your execution could vary. Actual execution may not have hit these exact prices. Its tricky trading 1-minute bars because you have to be staring at the chart and watching every move...but it sure can be profitable! Just keep you finger on the sell/buy (close position) button at all times.

Trade Symbol Buy/Short Time Sell/Cov. Time Shrs Gross Profit
1 QID-Long $35.97 12:11 $36.26 12:45 500 $145
2 QID-Long $36.28 12:54 $36.79 13:11 500 $255
3 QID-Long $36.73 13:49 $37.08 13:55 500 $175
4 QID-Short $36.92 14:38 $36.78 14:53 500 $70
5 QID-Short $36.68 14:58 $36.38 15:24 500 $150
6 QID-Short $36.26 15:42 $35.90 15:59 500 $180







$975








Trade Symbol Buy/Short Time Sell/Cov. Time Shrs Gross Profit
1 QID-Long $35.97 12:11 $36.26 12:45 1,000 $290
2 QID-Long $36.28 12:54 $36.79 13:11 1,000 $510
3 QID-Long $36.73 13:49 $37.08 13:55 1,000 $350
4 QID-Short $36.92 14:38 $36.78 14:53 1,000 $140
5 QID-Short $36.68 14:58 $36.38 15:24 1,000 $300
6 QID-Short $36.26 15:42 $35.90 15:59 1,000 $360







$ 1950








Trade Symbol Buy/Short Time Sell/Cov. Time Shrs Gross Profit
1 QID-Long $35.97 12:11 $36.26 12:45 1,500 $435
2 QID-Long $36.28 12:54 $36.79 13:11 1,500 $765
3 QID-Long $36.73 13:49 $37.08 13:55 1,500 $525
4 QID-Short $36.92 14:38 $36.78 14:53 1,500 $210
5 QID-Short $36.68 14:58 $36.38 15:24 1,500 $450
6 QID-Short $36.26 15:42 $35.90 15:59 1,500 $540







$2,925

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