Monday, November 19, 2007

Market Summary 11-19-07

Index Last Chg % Chg
DJ Industrials 12958.44 -218.35 -1.66%
Nasdaq Comp 2593.38 -43.86 -1.66%
S&P 500* 1433.27 -25.47 -1.75%
DJ Wilshire 5K 14462.65 -266.57 -1.81%
Russell 2000 750.35 -19.15 -2.49%
Nasdaq 100 2021.14 -27.48 -1.34%

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 563 585 305
Declining 2,741 2,417 953
Unchanged 67 99 94
Total 3,371 3,101 1,352
New 52 Week High 28 19 34
New 52 Week Low 565 347 161
Total 1,677,306,930 2,188,014,265 50,093,563
Advancing 174,770,200 340,652,251 8,468,790
Declining 1,494,920,830 1,830,650,675 40,530,173
Unchanged 7,615,900 16,711,339 1,094,600

Comments: New 52-wk lows continue to dominate. Very few new highs. So where do we go from here? See below for a question about DOW Theory vs. the Analysts.

Futures Last Change
Crude Oil 94.78 0.94
Natural Gas, Jan 8.125 -0.223
Gold, Dec. 781.8 -5.2

From Briefing.com
Moving the Market Sector Watch
Citigroup downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs

Fourth quarter earnings warning from Lowe's

Lack of leadership, weakness in financials

November NAHB builder confidence index comes in at 19, matching its all-time low reached in October
Strong: office electronics

Weak: thrifts & mortgages; diversified metals & mining; real estate management & development; homebuilding; trucking; auto manufacturers; agriculture products; forest products; thrifts & mortgage; building products; home improvement retail; trucking

Stock market bulls didn't have much to give thanks for in Monday's session as the major indices suffered another noticeable loss on the back of a weak financial sector (-3.0%).

Goldman Sachs played the spoiler today with a downgrade of Citigroup (C 32.00, -2.00) from Neutral to Sell. That call was highlighted by a contention that Citigroup could write off as much as $15 billion for debt losses over the next two quarters. It also included price cut estimates for a number of other financial stocks.

The timing of the Citigroup downgrade to Sell (i.e., with Citigroup already down 30% from its October high), and a warning from reinsurer Swiss Re that it lost nearly $1.1 billion on two credit default swaps, played on investors' concerns that it is premature to think the financial sector has hit bottom.

In a somewhat ironic twist, Citigroup on Friday raised its rating on the U.S. banking sector to Overweight from Market Weight citing, among other things, awful investor sentiment.

Well, the awful investor sentiment shone through again on Monday and not just toward the financial sector. The consumer discretionary sector (-2.4%) continued to get hit hard with homebuilders and retailers bearing the brunt of the selling blows. Concerns surrounding General Motors' (GM 26.79, -2.48) exposure to GMAC also weighed heavily on the sector.

Weakness in the homebuilding stocks coincided with another lousy report on housing conditions. Specifically, the National Association of Home Builders confidence index showed a reading of 19 for November that marked the lowest level since the number started being tracked in 1985.

On a related note, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 23.12, -1.89) didn't help matters when it reported disappointing third quarter results before the open and issued an earnings warning for the fourth quarter. Lowe's news set the tone for the retail sector (-3.0%) which started lower and extended its losses as the session progressed.

Other issues weighing on sentiment Monday included a stronger yen that was interpreted as a sign carry trades were being unwound as investors maintained a risk-averse nature.

The risk aversion was readily apparent in the Treasury market which rallied as the stock market dropped. The 10-year note jumped 24 ticks and its yield fell 10 basis points to 4.07%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year note dropped 18 basis points to 3.16% as slowdown concerns and the action in the financial sector fueled expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again.

Reports that Chinese regulators have ordered commercial banks to freeze lending through the end of the year in a bid to keep China's economy from overheating added to the slowdown concerns.

The only sector to record a gain on Monday was the utilities sector (+0.2%), which benefited from the drop in interest rates and its defensive nature. Similarly, other defensive-oriented groups, such as consumer staples (-0.7%) and health care (-1.0%), fared better than the broader market.

The major indices ended the day near their worst levels of the session. The S&P 500 is now up just 1.1% for the year.

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