Thursday, November 8, 2007

Market Summary 11-8-07 "CARNAGE IN TECH"

Index Last Change % Chg
DJ Industrials 13266.29 -33.73 -0.25%
Nasdaq Comp 2696 -52.76 -1.92%
S&P 500 1474.77 -0.85 -0.06%
DJ Wilshire 5K 14921.71 -4.51 -0.03%
Russell 2000 780.9 4.94 0.64%
Nasdaq 100 2106.16 -63.27 -2.92%

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,576 1,368 469
Declining 1,714 1,612 858
Unchanged 75 88 84
Total 3,365 3,068 1,411
New 52 Wk High 69 50 41
New 52 Wk Low 527 433 116
Total Volume 2,190,427,220 3,454,023,127 67,247,703
Advancing 1,121,003,560 729,012,566 24,719,533
Declining 1,056,275,560 2,701,821,460 34,030,270
Unchanged 13,148,100 23,189,101 8,497,900

Futures Last Change
Crude Oil 95.53 -0.84
Natural Gas 7.73 0.106
Gold, Dec. 833.9 0.4

From Briefing.com:
Moving the Market Sector Watch
Bernanke testified before the Joint Economic Commitee

October same-store sales are unimpressive

Tech sector weighs on market after Cisco's earnings results spur profit taking

Financial sector leads impressive late day comeback
Strong: fertilizer & agriculture chemicals; health care tech; education services; diversified metals & minerals; specialty consumer services; multi-utilities; industrial gases; electronic communication & equipment; motorcycle manufacturing; apparel retail

Weak: communication equipment; computer storage & peripherals; internet software & services; computer hardware; systems software; internet retailers; semiconductors; IT consulting & services; consumer electronics; leisure products



On Thursday, it looked like it was going to be another dismal day on Wall Street with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P dropping as much as 220, 100 and 25 points, respectively. Then an impressive late day rally, led by the financial sector, propelled the major indices to pare the majority of their intraday losses.

Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Cisco's (CSCO 29.63, -3.12,) earnings report and unimpressive same-store sales spurred most of the early selling pressure.

The prepared text for Bernanke's speech noted downside risks to the economic outlook given slower business and consumer spending, and upside risks to inflation given the weaker dollar and the rise in commodity prices.

In sum, the Fed is in a bind. While it has proved willing to bend to the economic concerns, it's worried that an overshoot could come back to bite them as lower policy rates help perpetuate higher inflation.

While the market continues to believe the Fed will come to the rescue with another 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, Briefing.com sides with the read from the policy statement that policy is on hold unless the economic/inflation news provides a large surprise.

Bernanke did not give the market any revelations. Investors pushed the market lower after the speech as they were hoping to get more substance of what the Fed will do in the future.

Cisco, a Briefing.com Active Portfolio holding, reported fiscal first quarter earnings that topped expectations. The stock got hammered, though, as investors were disappointed that the company's second quarter outlook failed to meet the market's high expectations.

Cisco's earnings report and outlook is solid in Briefing.com's estimation, but the market has taken it as a sign that the tech sector is overextended. After all, the Nasdaq 100 is up roughly 20% from its Aug. 16 low to yesterday's close. Therefore, the report spurred broad-based and aggressive profit taking in the tech sector (-4.0%), which in turn caused the Nasdaq to underperform.

Separately, as expected, the same-store sales results from the retailers for the month of October were unimpressive. The International Council of Shopping Centers concluded sales were up just 1.6% versus its original forecast for 2.5% growth.

The October increase was the slowest rate of increase in twelve years and followed a 1.7% gain in September that was less than half the gain registered in September 2006.

The factors behind the sluggish results weren't surprising, as many retailers blamed the warm October temperatures and a moderation in consumer spending that stemmed from the housing market downturn, higher energy costs, and the mortgage market mess that contributed to declining levels of consumer confidence.

Outside of tech, the remaining major sectors fared fairly well with all nine finishing in the green. The utilities (+2.0%) and energy (+1.5%) finished the day with the largest gains. Financials, however, provided the support for the late-day rally as it went from being down over 2.0% to finishing up 0.4%.

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