Market Summary 11-21-07

Index	Last	Chg	% Chg
DJ Industrials	12799.04	-211.1	-1.62%
Nasdaq Comp	2562.15	-34.66	-1.33%
S&P 500	1416.77	-22.93	-1.59%
DJ Wilshire 5K	14288.29	-217.09	-1.50%
Russell 2000	740.3	-9.03	-1.21%
Nasdaq 100	2006.38	-23.56	-1.16%

Comments: All of the averages are now below their 200 day MA and some are rapidly closing in on their August lows. The S&P 500 is now in the RED for the year. Nasdaq is now down 10% from its high in October. A "snap-back" rally could be coming very soon but it will most likely be sold by the pros. Don't be fooled, there may be no Santa Claus rally in store for us this year. If the Fed fails to cut on Dec. 11 and/or if Christmas retail sales are off...watch out below as the market is bound to sell off dramatically. According to Ken Fisher, the real "tell" for the US stock market is in the Yen-Euro spread. On days when the euro rises against the yen, stocks rise. On days when the yen rises to the euro, stocks fall. This year’s daily yen/euro changes perfectly track this summer’s stock market correction and subsequent resurrection. Today opened with the Yen +1.33% (FXY) and it closed +1.44%. Keep an eye on the Bank of Japan and the Yen for what will happen with US stocks.

Issues	NYSE	Nasdaq	Amex
Advancing	896	874	381
Declining	2,411	2,102	840
Unchanged	66	134	90
Total	3,373	3,110	1,311
New 52 Week High	30	4	34
New 52 Week Low	536	296	148
Total	1,603,201,400	2,044,449,059	43,769,092
Advancing	257,772,060	471,028,501	10,108,600
Declining	1,338,775,920	1,554,327,322	28,763,692
Unchanged	6,653,420	19,093,236	4,896,800

Comments: New lows still outpacing...for how many consecutive days now?

Futures	Last	Change
Crude Oil	97.44	0.15
Natural Gas, Jan	7.88	0.01
Gold, Dec.	803.5	4.9

Comments: Oil briefly spike to $99 before falling back. $100+ oil is in the cards now...its only a matter of time. But when the large speculators who are in this trade get out, and they will, oil could plummet $10 or more overnight, so say some savvy market analysts.

From Briefing.com:

Moving the Market		Sector Watch
Risk aversion trade, 10-year note yield falls below 4.0% before backing up a bit Weekly initial jobless claims fall, remain well below recession levels Drawdown in crude stockpiles when a build was expected Leading Indicators slip to -0.5% (-0.3% consensus)		Strong: general merchandise stores; motorcycle manufacturers; airlines; construction & farming; footwear Weak: homebuilding; fertilizer & agriculture; multi-line insurance; building products; industrial REITs; agriculture products; investment banks & brokerages; consumer finance; food distribution; health care distributors

The stock market headed into the Thanksgiving holiday on a low note, as investors sold equities and bought bonds in a flight to quality on Wednesday. The risk aversion trade is apparent in the yen's strength and the rally in U.S. Treasuries where the yield on the 10-year note dropped below 4.00% for the first time since 2005, before finishing the day at 4.01%. There is also a concern among investors about holding long positions going into the Thanksgiving holiday, which played a role in the selling pressure. A late-day recovery effort was staged, but the Dow and S&P ran into resistance at their intraday peaks, and eventually finished the day at their intraday lows. The Nasdaq, for its part, weathered the late-day selling efforts better, to finish well above its intraday lows. Weakness was broad-based with all ten of the major economic sectors ending the day in the red. The beleaguered financial sector (-2.2%) finished the day as the main laggard, as it had yesterday. Strikingly, the S&P 500 Retailing Index (-0.3%) and consumer discretionary sector (-1.0%) outperformed on a relative basis in the wake of several disappointing earnings reports from retailers this morning. There were a few economic releases of note on Wednesday. New claims for unemployment for the week ended Nov. 30 fell to 330,000 from 341,000 the week before. That is almost exactly in line with the four week moving average of 329,750. The news won't attract much market attention, but it does serve as a reminder that businesses are not acting in recessionary fashion. October Leading Indicators fell to -0.5%, compared to last month's reading of 0.3%. Economists expected the reading to come in at -0.3%. The Leading Indicators report is, for the most part, a compendium of previously announced economic indicators. There was a slight increase in selling pressure immediately following the report. The November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised to 76.1 from 75.0. The revision was mostly ignored by the stock market. In commodity trading, crude oil hit a new all-time high of $99.29 per barrel overnight, but subsequently declined into negative territory ahead of the government's weekly inventory stats. Crude inventories showed a draw of 1.07 million against expectations for a build of 750,000. Despite the bullish report, crude oil traded in a volatile manner finishing the day down 0.9% to $97.20. In observance of the Thanksgiving holiday, all U.S. markets are closed on Thursday (11/22). On Friday (11/23) the stock market and bond market reopen for a shortened day, closing at 13:00 ET.