Double digit intra-day gains in housing and financials:
Home Construction (ITB) +12.96%
Ultra Financials (UYG) +11.22
Homies (XHB) +10.00%
Next up to bat with a big-ass intra-day gain today:
Russell 2000 (UWM) +8.45%
All in all this market rally was totally nuts! Was it window dressing? The Plunge Protection Team? Fed pumping cash?
Tomorrow's job number and the weight of GOOG's miss will have an interesting impact. Will buyers sell and capture gains of the week?
Friday, February 1, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Waiting for Bernanke
Low volume, low excitment day...but financials UYG (+3.07%) and housing ITB (+4.73%) continued rising before tomorrow's Fed announcement. Both are up over 20% in the past 5 days! Anything less than an expected 50bp cut tomorrow will be unacceptable to the market. I expect there to be profit taking in both of these either way.
YHOO missed after the close and gives a weak 2008 forecast Price down 10% after hours. GOOG reports Thursday after the close. Nasdaq downward pressure continues.
YHOO missed after the close and gives a weak 2008 forecast Price down 10% after hours. GOOG reports Thursday after the close. Nasdaq downward pressure continues.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Financials and Housing Meltup Continues
Despite bad economic news the pre-Fed melt-up of the financial and housing ETF's continued.
The strength started early and built all day. Wednesday should be interesting!
The strength started early and built all day. Wednesday should be interesting!
| Name | Symbol | % Chg | Intra- day % |
| SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS | XHB | 8.12% | 7.3% |
| PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA FINANCIAL | UYG | 5.85% | 6.2% |
| SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF | XRT | 4.80% | 4.0% |
| KBW BANK ETF | KBE | 4.58% | 4.2% |
| PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA RUSSELL2000 | UWM | 4.21% | 5.3% |
| KBW REGIONAL BANKING | KRE | 3.90% | 3.7% |
| ISHARES TRUST DOW JONES U.S. REAL ESTATE | IYR | 3.71% | 4.2% |
Sunday, January 27, 2008
ETF Forecast for the Week of 1-28-08
General Commentary:
Next week the markets will get a heavy dose of economic data, a FOMC rate announcement and earnings from tech, consumer, energy and pharma sectors. Barring any new rogue traders surfacing or hedge fun implosions, the markets could see a rally on the back of strong Fed action. It will be a high-wire act all week and markets could go either way (data dependent). Most likely the expected 50bp cut and positive data will spark a market rally. Bottomline: THIS WILL BE AN OPPORTUNE TIME TO GET SHORT.
Major Major Indexes:
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50bp on Wednesday. This will act as a catalyst to bank shares. This should be positive for the DOW and S&P 500. Earnings from Google, Amazon and Yahoo! will weigh on the Nasdaq. If Google reports strong numbers and says positive things about the future, I expect the Nazz to rally. Unfortunately Amazon will probably offer a weak 2008 forecast, as well as Yahoo! Last week the Nazz was the only major index to drop, so perhaps its due for a bounce this week with a Google and Fed catalyst. My call: DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQQ will end the week in positive territory, with the S&P 500 gaining the most due to bank's rallying strong off the Fed decision. If the Fed fails to cut by 50 bp, then all indexes will get clobbered hard.
Market Sectors:
Banks and housing popped on the 75 basis point rate cut last week. I expect the same to happen this week, but to a lesser extent since everyone is expecting the 50bp cut.
My call: Buy XLF, UYG, KRE, KBE, XHB. All will gain this week on Fed's rate cut. This area of the market remains highly speculative and could easily swing negative with another "shoe dropping". Be prepared to go short with SKF.
Commodities and Metals
Gold continues to be strong, ending the week over $900/oz. GLD was up 3.3% on the week. Gold will likely continue its ascent to $1,000 albeit on a rocky path. Oil dipped briefly to $86.99 last week before ending up at $90. 52% of traders expect oil to continue to fall into the mid $80's before rallying later in the spring. My call: buy DUG on falling oil prices.
Global and Emerging Markets
With the "decoupling" theory going out the window, most emerging markets took a dump last week. People are reducing risk and exposure to these highly speculative markets. If the U.S. catches a cold, these will catch the FLU! My call: Short FXI via FXP.
UltraShort/Long
Without a doubt the best play of the year so far has been shorting everything and anything! The general consensus now for trading in a bear market is to SELL ALL RALLIES. If you want to get long on these bounces be prepared to exit quickly and do not hold overnight. Real Estate and Financials will get big bounces on Fed moves...but will also surrender to the "other shoe dropping". My sense is that we have not seen a bottom yet, there is still way too much risk in the system with CDS exposure to the banks.
Next week the markets will get a heavy dose of economic data, a FOMC rate announcement and earnings from tech, consumer, energy and pharma sectors. Barring any new rogue traders surfacing or hedge fun implosions, the markets could see a rally on the back of strong Fed action. It will be a high-wire act all week and markets could go either way (data dependent). Most likely the expected 50bp cut and positive data will spark a market rally. Bottomline: THIS WILL BE AN OPPORTUNE TIME TO GET SHORT.
Major Major Indexes:
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50bp on Wednesday. This will act as a catalyst to bank shares. This should be positive for the DOW and S&P 500. Earnings from Google, Amazon and Yahoo! will weigh on the Nasdaq. If Google reports strong numbers and says positive things about the future, I expect the Nazz to rally. Unfortunately Amazon will probably offer a weak 2008 forecast, as well as Yahoo! Last week the Nazz was the only major index to drop, so perhaps its due for a bounce this week with a Google and Fed catalyst. My call: DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQQ will end the week in positive territory, with the S&P 500 gaining the most due to bank's rallying strong off the Fed decision. If the Fed fails to cut by 50 bp, then all indexes will get clobbered hard.
| YTD % | 1W % | ||
| Dow 30 | DIA | -7.8% | 1.3% |
| S&P 500 | SPY | -9.0% | 0.7% |
| Russell 2000 | IWM | -9.8% | 1.9% |
| Nasdaq 100 | QQQQ | -14.1% | -3.0% |
Market Sectors:
Banks and housing popped on the 75 basis point rate cut last week. I expect the same to happen this week, but to a lesser extent since everyone is expecting the 50bp cut.
My call: Buy XLF, UYG, KRE, KBE, XHB. All will gain this week on Fed's rate cut. This area of the market remains highly speculative and could easily swing negative with another "shoe dropping". Be prepared to go short with SKF.
| Sector | YTD % | 1W % | |
| Gold Miners | GDX | 9.5% | 4.3% |
| Transportation | IYT | -1.4% | 7.1% |
| Home Builders | XHB | -2.4% | 15.2% |
| REITs | IYR | -2.9% | 8.1% |
| Retail | RTH | -3.4% | 2.8% |
| Regional Banks | KRE | -3.9% | 12.0% |
| Large Banks | KBE | -2.3% | 11.3% |
| Biotech | IBB | -5.1% | -5.1% |
| Consumer Cyclicals | XLY | -5.6% | 4.5% |
| Financials | XLF | -6.0% | 6.6% |
| HealthCare | XLV | -6.6% | -4.8% |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | -7.3% | -1.7% |
| Pharmaceutical | PPH | -7.7% | -5.6% |
| Basic Materials | XLB | -7.8% | 2.9% |
| Agribusiness | MOO | -8.1% | 5.6% |
| Metals & Mining | XME | -8.6% | 7.4% |
| Industrials | XLI | -8.6% | 3.2% |
| Utilities | XLU | -9.8% | -4.6% |
| Energy | XLE | -13.4% | -0.3% |
| Oil Services | OIH | -13.5% | 1.2% |
| Steel | SLX | -13.6% | 1.7% |
| Semiconductor | SMH | -13.7% | 0.4% |
| Technology | XLK | -14.3% | -1.1% |
Commodities and Metals
Gold continues to be strong, ending the week over $900/oz. GLD was up 3.3% on the week. Gold will likely continue its ascent to $1,000 albeit on a rocky path. Oil dipped briefly to $86.99 last week before ending up at $90. 52% of traders expect oil to continue to fall into the mid $80's before rallying later in the spring. My call: buy DUG on falling oil prices.
| YTD % | 1W % | ||
| Silver | SLV | 10.9% | 1.7% |
| Agriculture | DBA | 10.3% | -0.5% |
| Gold | GLD | 9.5% | 3.3% |
| Natural Gas | UNG | 6.7% | 0.7% |
| Oil | USO | -5.1% | 0.5% |
Global and Emerging Markets
With the "decoupling" theory going out the window, most emerging markets took a dump last week. People are reducing risk and exposure to these highly speculative markets. If the U.S. catches a cold, these will catch the FLU! My call: Short FXI via FXP.
| YTD % | 1W % | ||
| Mexico | EWW | -7.0% | 2.8% |
| Canada | EWC | -7.7% | 3.9% |
| Taiwan | EWT | -8.5% | -4.4% |
| Hong Kong | EWH | -8.6% | 0.5% |
| Brazil | EWZ | -8.7% | 4.0% |
| Singapore | EWS | -9.1% | 2.6% |
| Europe, Asia, Far East | EFA | -9.9% | -1.4% |
| Russia | RSX | -11.2% | -5.0% |
| Emerging Markets | EEM | -11.3% | -1.5% |
| China | FXI | -12.7% | -5.2% |
| India | INP | -15.4% | -5.1% |
| Australia | EWA | -7.0% | 2.7% |
UltraShort/Long
Without a doubt the best play of the year so far has been shorting everything and anything! The general consensus now for trading in a bear market is to SELL ALL RALLIES. If you want to get long on these bounces be prepared to exit quickly and do not hold overnight. Real Estate and Financials will get big bounces on Fed moves...but will also surrender to the "other shoe dropping". My sense is that we have not seen a bottom yet, there is still way too much risk in the system with CDS exposure to the banks.
| YTD % | 1W % | ||
| Nasdaq 100 Ultrashort | QID | 34.6% | 6.2% |
| Oil Services Ultrashort | DUG | 29.7% | 1.3% |
| Russell 2000 Ultrashort | TWM | 22.6% | -4.4% |
| S&P 500 Midcap | MZZ | 22.2% | -4.8% |
| China FTSE 25 Ultrashort | FXP | 20.6% | 6.6% |
| S&P 500 Ultrashort | SDS | 20.2% | -1.6% |
| DOW 30 Ultrashort | DXD | 16.9% | -2.6% |
| Financials Ultrashort | SKF | 10.1% | -13.4% |
| Real Estate Ultrashort | SRS | 0.8% | -19.5% |
ETF Leaderboard - Week Ending 1-25-08
What a wild week it was!
Massive intra-day reversals, a surprise massive 75bp Fed rate cut, "$6oo bucks (or more) from the Gov't for you and me, a "rogue trader" loses $7.9 billion, worst decline in home prices since the Great Depression!!
Hold onto your hats, the coming week should be even more exciting. The highlight of the week comes Wednesday when the FOMC announces whether it will cut an expected 50bp or not. There are also major market moving economic datapoints, the biggest coming Friday with the jobs number. Also on tap, earnings report from tech, drugs and consumer staples companies.
Week's Biggest ETF Gainers
Week's Biggest ETF Losers
Friday (1-25-08) Biggest Intra-day % Reversals
Massive intra-day reversals, a surprise massive 75bp Fed rate cut, "$6oo bucks (or more) from the Gov't for you and me, a "rogue trader" loses $7.9 billion, worst decline in home prices since the Great Depression!!
Hold onto your hats, the coming week should be even more exciting. The highlight of the week comes Wednesday when the FOMC announces whether it will cut an expected 50bp or not. There are also major market moving economic datapoints, the biggest coming Friday with the jobs number. Also on tap, earnings report from tech, drugs and consumer staples companies.
- Monday - New home sales, VZ, MCD, AXP
- Tuesday - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, YHOO, EMC
- Wednesday - ADP employment, GDP, EIA Petro Report, FOMC Announcement, AMZN
- Thursday - Personal Income and Outlays, Jobless Claims, GOOG, PG
- Friday - Jobs number, ISM Mfg Index, XOM, CVX
| Name | Symbol | YTD % |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ | QID | 34.6% |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS | DUG | 29.7% |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MARKETS | EEV | 23.2% |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES | TWM | 22.6% |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES | MZZ | 22.2% |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 ETF | FXP | 20.6% |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES | SDS | 20.2% |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES | DXD | 16.9% |
| ISHARES SILVER TRUST | SLV | 10.9% |
| POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE FUND | DBA | 10.3% |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES | SKF | 10.1% |
| MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS | GDX | 10.0% |
Week's Biggest ETF Gainers
| Name | Symbol | 1W % |
| ULTRA FINANCIAL PROSHARES | UYG | 15.3% |
| SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS | XHB | 15.2% |
| KBW REGIONAL BANKING | KRE | 12.0% |
| KBW BANK | KBE | 11.3% |
| REGIONAL HOLDRS TRUST | RKH | 10.3% |
| COHEN & STEERS REALTY MAJORS INDEX FUND | ICF | 9.0% |
| DOW JONES U.S. REAL ESTATE INDEX FUND | IYR | 8.1% |
| SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF | XME | 7.4% |
| DOW JONES U.S. FINANCIAL SECTOR INDEX FUND | IYF | 7.3% |
| DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE INDEX FUND | IYT | 7.1% |
| FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND | XLF | 6.6% |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 ETF | FXP | 6.6% |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES | QID | 6.2% |
| DOW JONES BROKER US DEALERS INDEX FUND | IAI | 6.0% |
| MARKET VECTORS-AGRIBUSINESS ETF | MOO | 5.6% |
Week's Biggest ETF Losers
| Name | Symbol | 1W % |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE | SRS | -19.5% |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS | SKF | -13.4% |
| ISHARES TRUST S&P 500 GROWTH INDEX FUND | IVW | -12.8% |
| ISHARES MSCI GERMANY INDEX FUND | EWG | -6.9% |
| PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES | QLD | -6.1% |
| MERRILL LYNCH & CO. INC. PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDRS | PPH | -5.6% |
| ISHARES TRUST FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 INDEX FUND | FXI | -5.2% |
| IPATH MSCI INDIA TOTAL RETURN INDEX ETN | INP | -5.1% |
Friday (1-25-08) Biggest Intra-day % Reversals
| Name | Symbol | Intra- day% |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 ETF | FXP | 9.2% |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES | QID | 9.0% |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES | DUG | 7.5% |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES | SKF | 7.0% |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MARKETS | EEV | 7.0% |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES | SDS | 5.3% |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES | TWM | 4.7% |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES | SRS | 4.6% |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES | DXD | 4.2% |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES | MZZ | 3.6% |
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Market Meltdown? Make Money on Reversals!
Holy crap this market took a U-turn today! If you played it right, you could have made HUGE money!
Take a look at these reversal gains (open to close % change)!!
Take a look at these reversal gains (open to close % change)!!
| Name | Symbol | Volume | % Chg | Intraday % Chg |
| PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA FINANCIAL | UYG | 2,782,062 | 5.42 | 19.70% |
| ISHARES TRUST COHEN & STEERS REALTY MAJORS | ICF | 2,463,381 | 2.65 | 18.40% |
| POWERSHARES GOLDEN DRAGON HALTER USX CHINA | PGJ | 2,168,811 | -6.25 | 18.36% |
| ISHARES TRUST DOW JONES ENERGY SECTOR | IYE | 827,040 | -2.72 | 17.13% |
| MERRILL LYNCH & CO INC. REGIONAL HOLDRS | RKH | 2,530,100 | 3.23 | 13.88% |
| POWERSHARES TRUST WILDERHILL CLEAN ENERGY | PBW | 3,128,071 | -1.18 | 13.57% |
| ISHARES TRUST S&P MIDCAP 400 | IJH | 1,382,759 | -0.5 | 13.03% |
| CLAYMORE BNY BRIC ETF | EEB | 1,110,121 | -3.07 | 12.93% |
| ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL 1000 VALUE | IWD | 4,501,512 | -0.18 | 12.91% |
| ISHARES DOW JONES US HOME CONSTRUCTION | ITB | 1,806,114 | 6.31 | 12.26% |
| ISHARES DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE | IYT | 1,759,398 | -0.04 | 11.70% |
| SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS | XHB | 11,988,714 | 7.85 | 11.48% |
| TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR | XLK | 8,274,144 | -1.86 | 10.59% |
Friday, January 18, 2008
ETF Leaderboard - Week Ending 1-18-08
YTD % gain leaders as of the week ended 1-18-08. List only includes the most liquid ETF's (volume> 500,000 shares/day).
Its truly a short seller's market so far in 2008. There are only a handful of non-short or ultrashort ETF's posting positive gains. Had you listened to The Fly and positioned yourself short in December 2007, you could have banked some coin!
ETF Trading Ideas for the Week Ahead:
1. Continued weakness in oil prices should see DUG continue to rise at least through March.
2. An oversold rally will ensue at some point (its getting close), which sectors will catch a bid? Try the Nasdaq ultra-long (QLD) or for the daring, try the financials ultra-long (UYG)
3. When the Fed comes in with a big rate cut (some say 75 bp or more), expect a big rally in the banks. KRE, KCE could bounce strongly. Look at housing too XHB.
4. If the govt's fiscal stimulus takes shape ($800 cash or so) expect the beaten down retailers to pop. Take a look at RTH or XRT.
5. Here's an interesting observation: While DBA, the agricultural commodities ETF is up nearly 10% YTD, the agriculture companies ETF (MOO) is down -12.9%. How do you reconcile that? Either DBA has to come down or MOO has to go up. MOO's components got clobbered this week. DE, MOS, MON, BG, POT all losing significant percentages. I have a feeling these stocks will rise later in 2008 as worldwide ag inflation continues. Keep an eye on MOO!
Its truly a short seller's market so far in 2008. There are only a handful of non-short or ultrashort ETF's posting positive gains. Had you listened to The Fly and positioned yourself short in December 2007, you could have banked some coin!
| Name | Symbol | YTD % Chg |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS | SKF | 29.8% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 | MZZ | 28.4% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 | TWM | 28.2% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS | DUG | 28.0% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT QQQ | QID | 26.7% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS | SMN | 25.5% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE | SRS | 25.3% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 | SDS | 22.2% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT DOW30 | DXD | 20.0% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MARKETS | EEV | 20.0% |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 25 | FXP | 13.2% |
| POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE FUND | DBA | 10.9% |
| PROSHARES SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES | SH | 10.8% |
| PROSHARES SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES | DOG | 9.7% |
| ISHARES SILVER TRUST | SLV | 9.1% |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TRUST | GLD | 6.0% |
| UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS FUND | UNG | 5.9% |
| MARKET VECTORS VECTORS GOLD MINERS | GDX | 5.5% |
| ISHARES TRUST LEHMAN 7-10 YEAR TREASURY BOND | IEF | 3.0% |
| ISHARES TRUST LEHMAN 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND | TLT | 2.6% |
| ISHARES TRUST LEHMAN TIPS BOND | TIP | 2.6% |
| ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA | EWM | 2.3% |
| ISHARES TRUST LEHMAN AGGREGATE BOND | AGG | 2.1% |
| MERRILL LYNCH & CO. BIOTECH HOLDRS | BBH | 1.6% |
| ISHARES TRUST LEHMAN 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND | SHY | 1.3% |
ETF Trading Ideas for the Week Ahead:
1. Continued weakness in oil prices should see DUG continue to rise at least through March.
2. An oversold rally will ensue at some point (its getting close), which sectors will catch a bid? Try the Nasdaq ultra-long (QLD) or for the daring, try the financials ultra-long (UYG)
3. When the Fed comes in with a big rate cut (some say 75 bp or more), expect a big rally in the banks. KRE, KCE could bounce strongly. Look at housing too XHB.
4. If the govt's fiscal stimulus takes shape ($800 cash or so) expect the beaten down retailers to pop. Take a look at RTH or XRT.
5. Here's an interesting observation: While DBA, the agricultural commodities ETF is up nearly 10% YTD, the agriculture companies ETF (MOO) is down -12.9%. How do you reconcile that? Either DBA has to come down or MOO has to go up. MOO's components got clobbered this week. DE, MOS, MON, BG, POT all losing significant percentages. I have a feeling these stocks will rise later in 2008 as worldwide ag inflation continues. Keep an eye on MOO!
Friday, January 4, 2008
2007 ETF Performance Winners
The best performance for ETFs in 2007 reflects the sectors that were strong during the year.
What will 2008 bring?
Some sectors will continue to rally and some will fall away. More on this later in another post...
What will 2008 bring?
Some sectors will continue to rally and some will fall away. More on this later in another post...
| Symbol | Description | YTD % Chg |
| INP | India | 86.4% |
| SLX | Steel | 83.3% |
| EWZ | Brazin | 72.3% |
| GXC | China | 67.8% |
| EEB | BRIC countries | 66.8% |
| PGJ | China | 63.3% |
| SRS | Ultrashort Real Estate | 61.3% |
| PBW | Clean Energy | 59.9% |
| DIG | Ultra Oil & Gas | 54.1% |
| FXI | China | 52.9% |
| OIL | Oil | 47.5% |
| USO | Oil | 46.8% |
| ILF | Latin America | 46.5% |
| SKF | Ultrashort Financials | 45.6% |
| XME | Metals and Mining | 40.8% |
| EWM | Malaysia | 39.9% |
| MOO | Agribusiness | 39.4% |
| EWH | Hong Kong | 37.1% |
| OIH | Oil Services | 35.3% |
| XLE | Energy Sector | 35.3% |
| VWO | Emerging Markets | 34.8% |
| DBA | Agriculture Commodities | 31.9% |
| EWG | Gernamy | 31.7% |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | 31.6% |
| RSX | Russia | 31.1% |
| EWY | Korea | 31.0% |
| GLD | Gold | 30.5% |
| DBC | Commodity fund | 28.4% |
| PWJ | Dynamic Mid Cap Growth | 27.5% |
| EWC | Canada | 26.9% |
| EWS | Singapore | 23.1% |
| EWA | Australia | 22.6% |
| QLD | Ultra QQQQ | 22.4% |
| UTH | Utilities | 20.0% |
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