Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Market Summary 11-28-07 "Rally Time"

Index Last Chg % Chg
DJ Industrials 13289.45 331.01 2.55%
Nasdaq Comp 2662.91 82.11 3.18%
S&P 500 1469.02 40.79 2.86%
DJ Wilshire 5K 14816.83 417.31 2.90%
Russell 2000 770.04 26.77 3.60%
Nasdaq 100 2095.39 61.63 3.03%

Comments: A two-rally is now in force. Can it hold? With expectations of a Fed rate cut baked in the cake on Dec. 11 and some month end dressing, the markets might have a leg up for awhile. Tomorrow night's Bernanke speech should shore up today's Vice Chair comments. A drop in oil prices helps not to mention the yen-euro cross being supportive. If the Yen strengthens, watch for the market drop.

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 2,900 2,381 911
Declining 439 647 368
Unchanged 56 105 76
Total 3,395 3,133 1,355




New 52 Wk Hi 55 38 11
New 52 Wk Lo 97 108 67




Total 1,747,493,770 2,481,813,903 46,471,291
Advancing 1,663,615,450 2,184,437,148 35,923,211
Declining 79,481,800 290,665,054 9,664,280
Unchanged 4,396,520 6,711,701 883,800

Futures Last Chg
Crude Oil 91.77 1.15
Natural Gas, Jan 7.588 0.037
Gold, Feb 817 3.5

From Briefing.com:
Moving the Market Sector Watch
Fed Vice Chairman Kohn said the Fed must be "flexible and pragmatic" in policy, suggesting he may favor a rate cut in Dec.

Durable Orders fall in October; not good news, but not recessionary either

Wells Fargo announces special Q4 provision of $1.4 bln due to credit losses; Freddie Mac cuts Q4 dividend by 50%
Strong: health care facilities; real estate management & dev; thrifts & mortgages; tires & rubber; investment banks & brokerages; computer storage & peripherals; IT consulting; coal & consumable fuels; fertilizer & agriculture chemicals; semiconductors

Weak: leisure products

It took most of the month but the S&P 500 finally managed to put together back-to-back winning sessions and it did so in striking fashion, scoring a two-day gain of 4.4% that was driven by a resurgent financial sector which is up 7.8% from Monday's close.

The rally on Wednesday was notable for a number of reasons, not the least of which was the understanding that it came in the face of weak economic data and a warning from Wells Fargo (WFC 30.72, +0.89) that it will be recording a special fourth quarter loss provision of $1.4 billion due largely to losses in its home equity loan portfolio.

The Wells Fargo news was an early weight on the futures market, but sentiment turned when it became apparent that Wells Fargo was indicated to start the session little changed.

The futures market, though, got a bigger jolt from a speech given by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn that noted increased turbulence in the financial markets of late has partly reversed some of the improvement seen in September and October.

Kohn's comment was interpreted as a dovish signal that the FOMC will be open to the idea of cutting interest rates again at its December 11 meeting. That view was underpinned by a lackluster Durable Orders report for October, another decline in existing home sales (-1.2% in October), and a Beige Book report that made reference to an economy expanding at a slower pace.

The major indices spent the majority of Wednesday's session trading higher as the resilience of the financial sector (+5.0%) to seemingly bad news sparked a bargain hunting trade that, in turn, provoked short covering activity.

Freddie Mac (FRE 29.42, +3.69) was a standout in Wednesday's trading and representative of the bargain hunting bid that took hold as it rallied 14% after announcing a 50% cut in its fourth quarter dividend and plans to issue $6 billion in non-cumulative preferred stock. A little more than a week ago, shares of FRE plummeted 29% after the company said it would be pursuing efforts to raise capital in the near-term. Today's response speaks to the quick shift in sentiment.

Strength was broad-based with all ten economic sectors making considerable headway. The "laggard" of the bunch was the utilities sector which gained "only" 1.2%.

Another sharp decline in oil prices (-4.0% to $90.62) also played favorably for today's participants who put a healthy bid under the beaten-down consumer discretionary sector (+3.2%).

Once again, the stock market rally took the wind out of the Treasury market's sails. The 10-year note dropped 21 ticks bringing its yield up to 4.03%.

No comments: