Monday, November 26, 2007

Market Summary 11-26-07

Index Last Change % Chg
DJ Industrials 12743.44 -237.44 -1.83%
Nasdaq Comp 2540.99 -55.61 -2.14%
S&P 500 1407.22 -33.48 -2.32%
DJ Wilshire 5K 14208.95 -309.24 -2.13%
Russell 2000 735.07 -19.96 -2.64%
Nasdaq 100 1989.36 -39.54 -1.95%

Comments: Some serious punishment was inflicted yet again today. The market is now primed for a snap-back rally, but people having been saying this for days now. There are 24 trading days left in the year. Will a rally come before year-end? Today's open high and low close trend is not a good omen. The market seems very "vulnerable". Is it a double bottom now with the August lows being retested setting us up for the bounce? The primary trend and psychology is negative. This will be a major challenge to overcome in the next 4 weeks. Dennis Gartman says the public has not sold yet. They probably won't until January. This is not a market collapse...its a deterioration. Shorts will continue to rule the day.

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 793 764 464
Declining 2,518 2,235 820
Unchanged 61 98 88
Total 3,372 3,097 1,372




New 52 Week High 33 23 43
New 52 Week Low 313 264 149




Total Vol
1,501,686,710 2,027,976,260 52,129,216
Advancing 204,242,380 348,595,590 10,436,646
Declining 1,291,473,350 1,671,835,882 40,021,870
Unchanged 5,970,980 7,544,788 1,670,700

Futures Last Chg
Crude Oil 96.75 -1.43
Natural Gas, Jan 8.014 0.003
Gold, Dec. 824 -0.7

From Briefing.com:
Moving the Market Sector Watch
Financial sector hit hard

Risk aversion

ShopperTrak indicates an 8.3% gain in retail sales on Black Friday, but shoppers spent 3.5% less per person according to National Retail Federation
Strong: leisure products; real estate mgmt. development

Weak: thrifts & mortgages; retail REITs; homebuilding; residential REITs; industrial REITs; regional banks; specialty REITs; housewares; office REITs; computer storage & peripherals; housewares


For a brief period today, there was a twinge of optimism that the stock market would be able to score back-to-back gains. Reports of stronger than expected retail traffic over the Thanksgiving holiday contributed to that view. However, it wasn't long before concerns about the financial sector (-4.1%) took hold again and knocked the market down to size.

At the end of the day, the stock market relinquished everything it gained in Friday's shortened session, and then some, and returned to negative territory for the year.

Several factors combined to take the financial sector sharply lower.

UBS downgraded Freddie Mac (FRE 24.50, -1.97) and Fannie Mae (FNM 28.92, -3.28) to Neutral from Buy, CNBC reported that Citigroup (C 30.70, -1.00) is on the verge of a massive layoff announcement that could include as many as 45,000 positions, or nearly 15% of its current workforce, and Senator Charles Schumer reportedly urged regulators to examine the risks involved with the increased lending by the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta to Countrywide (CFC 8.64, -1.01).

The latter report accelerated the selling in the financials as it evoked lingering concerns about Countrywide's liquidity position and fueled fears about the ramifications for Countrywide in the event that source of funding is diminished.

In essence, the enduring sense of uncertainty regarding the mortgage market triggered another broad-based sell-off that saw selling intensify at the end of the day and left the indices at, or near, their worst levels of the session at the closing bell.

Every sector traded lower with all but the defensive-oriented utilities sector (-0.7%) losing more than 1.0%.

Telecom services (-3.1%) followed the financial sector as a loss leader. Energy (-2.8%), technology (-2.5%) and consumer discretionary (-2.3%) also suffered sizable losses.

Despite a report from ShopperTrak RCT that sales rose 8.3% versus last year on the day after Thanksgiving, and 7.2% in the two-day period following Thanksgiving, retailers were not spared in today's sell-off. The homebuilders, though, were the biggest pocket of weakness in the discretionary sector. The S&P industry group plunged 7.2% following some negative comments out of Citigroup with respect to the near-term outlook.

By and large, there was little that worked in the stock market as a risk averse mindset took hold.

The risk aversion was plain to see in the Treasury market, which rallied sharply as losses in the stock market compounded. The 10-year surged more than a point and its yield dropped to 3.84%.

Separately, the dollar index (-0.3% to 74.859) lost further ground Monday. Its weakness, though, didn't help commodities much as slowdown concerns tempered buying efforts. Oil prices slipped 0.5% to $97.70 amid reports that Saudi Arabia has increased its production.

No comments: