Friday, December 7, 2007

Market Summary 12-7-07

Index Last Chg % Chg
DJ Industrials 13625.58 5.69 0.04%
Nasdaq Comp 2706.16 -2.87 -0.11%
S&P 500 1504.66 -2.68 -0.18%
DJ Wilshire 5K 15195.1 -8.26 -0.05%
Russell 2000 785.52 -1.43 -0.18%
Nasdaq 100 2130 2.35 0.11%

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,606 1,438 686
Declining 1,544 1,511 558
Unchanged 94 139 106
Total 3,244 3,088 1,350




New 52 Wk High 109 70 40
New 52 Wk Low 29 99 41




Total 1,204,307,060 1,926,890,683 57,083,376
Advancing 623,915,020 866,312,263 16,717,790
Declining 550,943,520 978,844,773 19,752,486
Unchanged 29,448,520 81,733,647 20,613,100

Futures Last Chg
Crude Oil 88.25 -1.98
Natural Gas 7.105 -0.225
Gold, Feb 801.3 -5.8

WEEKLY CHANGES:
Index 1W 2W
DJ Industrials 1.90% 4.97%
Nasdaq Comp 1.70% 4.22%
S&P 500 1.59% 4.44%
DJ Wilshir 5K 1.76% 4.66%
Russell 2000 2.31% 4.04%
Nasdaq 100 1.96% 4.98%

Comments: Nearly 50% (or more) recapture of the 10% market correction since the highs in October. With a rate cut on the table next week, Christmas approaching and most of the bad news already priced into the market, are we set for the proverbial Santa Claus rally? Or will we re-test the correction level lows of late November? Lehman reports earnings next week which could be the only negative news to kill a rally.

From Briefing.com:

Moving the Market Sector Watch
Nonfarm payrolls rose 94K in November, topping expectations; no sign of recession

Unemployment rate holds at 4.7%, average hourly earnings rose to a stronger than expected 0.5%.

Merrill Lynch downgrades American Express, Capital One and Discover from Neutral to Sell
Strong: IT consulting & services; diversified metals & mineral; airlines; dept. stores; health care facilities; aluminum; trading centers; trucking; personal products; auto retail; apparel retail; steel

Weak: consumer finance; thrifts & mortgages; biotech; education services; specialty consumer services; diversified banks; homebuilding; distillers & vintners; regional banks; food distribution

It wasn't a very exciting trade today as the stock market chopped around in a narrow range. There was some exciting news, though, with respect to the labor market that left market watchers feeling a bit better about economic prospects in the U.S.

The news of note was that nonfarm payrolls rose 94,000 in November versus an expectation for an increase of approximately 80,000. October nonfarm payrolls were revised up slightly to 170,000 from 166,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.7% (consensus 4.8%), hourly earnings rose 0.5% (consensus +0.3%) and the average workweek was on economists' mark of 33.8 hours.

The takeaway from the report was twofold. First, it delivered the tacit message that the economy continued to grow in November and that there is no sign of recession. Secondly, it reduced the probability of the FOMC cutting the fed funds rate by 50 basis points at its December 11 meeting.

The latter consideration took some wind out of the Treasury market where the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 10 basis points to 4.11%.

Arguably, it took some wind out of the stock market, too, which has benefited of late from the aggressive rate cut expectation. Overall, we would attribute today's modest weakness in the broader market to some profit taking after a strong run entering today's trade that saw the S&P 500 gain 100 points, or 7.1%, since the close on November 26.

The financial sector (-1.0%) weighed the heaviest on the broader market as negative comments from Merrill Lynch on the consumer economy cast a pall on the stocks, particularly American Express (AXP 56.96, -2.57), Discover (DFS 16.76, -0.56) and Capital One (COF 49.80, -2.63), which the firm downgraded from Neutral to Sell. Capital One was also downgraded by Morgan Stanley from Overweight to Underweight.

Altogether five sectors traded up today and five sectors traded down, which makes for a cozy characterization of today's market as mixed. The financial sector was the only sector that moved at least 1.0%.

The energy sector (-0.21%) garnered the distinction as being Friday's worst-performing area. It slipped along with oil prices, which were unable to hold above $90 and fell 2.1% to $88.28.

Volume at the NYSE was relatively light as traders played things fairly conservatively going into the weekend and ahead of the FOMC meeting where Briefing.com expects the fed funds rate to be cut by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

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