If you look back at last week, it really only consisted of 2 days of real trading - Monday and Friday. The middle of the week was a seesaw.
The two catalysts last week of significance were:
Monday: 1st Day of New Quarter - Money typically flows into market on those days
Tuesday: Jobs number was positive, relieving worries
Looking ahead, what will be the major catalysts to move stocks next week?
Here's some ideas:
1. Earnings Season Starts - Alcoa, Pepsi, Costco and others report this week
2. Economic Data - Sept. retail sales, PPI, FOMC minutes (Tuesday)
3. Fed Speeches - Various Fed heads speaking throughout week, especially on Friday
4. Biotech & Pharma - Various conferences could provide catalysts. Fall is drug season.
Conclusion:
I don't see anything above as to "earth shattering" for the markets. I expect the markets to gyrate up and down this week after last week's strong run and probably end up flat or slightly up at the end of the week. Possibilities to watch for: Tech (QQQQ, QLD, XLK, SMH) may continue to roll as well as the emerging markets (FXI, EWZ, EWS) which are getting the majority of investor's attention these days. Retail (XRT, RTH) could sell off if September retail numbers are weak. Financials may react to the Fed speakers or the FOMC minutes (XLF). Oil prices may fall again (watch for potential OIH short, or DUG plays). Watch IBB and PPH for reactions to biotech and pharma companies at conferences. These stocks trade on news about drug trials and FDA approvals.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
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