Monday, October 15, 2007

Day's Top Gainers/Losers

TOP GAINERS w/VOLUME>1M
Symbol % Chg Volume
UNG 6.68 2,455,055
USO 2.95 2,072,900
SDS 2.09 11,284,342
TWM 2.08 3,289,303
QID 1.98 26,434,151
DXD 1.79 2,451,661
PGJ 1.25 1,536,000

COMMENTS:

OIL - Oil hitting $86 helped propel the commodity ETF (USO) up nearly 3%, however XLE and OIH did not participate in the move to the same extent. They were only up 0.86% and 0.5% respectively. Is $90 oil the next stop? The recent run has been amazing and defied the majority of market analysts. An analyst on Bloomberg TV today said that oil is establishing a new "normal" range of $50-$60 (vs. $40's last year this time). The economic impacts will be felt across many industries, no doubt...think retail, airlines, restaurants, autos, etc.

ULTRASHORTS- Being Ultrashort (200%) any of the major averages via Dow 30 (DXD), S&P500 (SDS), Russell 2000 (TWM) and Nasdaq (QID) were all big winners in today's down market. If Q3 earnings and Q4 prospects don't validate the market's run-up since August, as I suspect, there will be more winning days ahead for the Ultrashorts. This week's earnings reports and guidance are going to be critical. I like to focus on the QID/QLD relationship as well as TWM for the greater volatility as trading vehicles.


TOP LOSERS w/VOLUME>1M
Symbol % Chg Volume
XHB -4.22 4,237,630
KRE -3.24 1,638,700
XRT -2.49 2,255,400
EWS -2.26 4,558,707
EWY -2.14 2,455,100
IYR -2.06 4,017,100
XLF -2.03 73,312,900
EWH -1.81 7,701,963
QLD -1.67 1,834,085
EWW -1.63 2,636,145
XLY -1.59 2,845,000
IWN -1.53 2,817,700
EWA -1.43 1,715,900
EWM -1.37 1,644,800
EEM -1.22 12,876,487
RTH -1.22 4,412,100
EWZ -1.18 15,365,000
EWJ -1.17 14,134,727
IWM -1.16 77,249,856
XLV -1.08 2,195,900
IWO -1.04 6,505,000

COMMENTS:
Financials - XLF, KRE all took a hit on the Citigroup earnings report and negative expectations for Q4. Expect more negative financial earnings later this week from the big banks and regionals. These two ETFs might make nice shorts as they have both run up since the Fed rate cut. Many analysts are not expecting another rate cut at Oct. 31 to help them out. Weak financials also bleed over to the RTH (retail) and housing (XHB) sectors.

Emerging Markets - EWZ, EEM, EWS, EWM, EWW, etc all falling but somehow FXI (china) squeeked out a miniscule gain of 0.02%. If the US consumer does catch cold...it WILL be felt in the Emerging Markets. Not only that, but these are WAY overbought at this point. Due for a major correction. Which you could also argue applies to the Nasdaq.

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