Thursday, October 25, 2007

Market Summary 10-25-07

Index Last Change % Chg
DJ Industrials 13671.92 -3.33 -0.02%
Nasdaq Comp 2750.86 -23.9 -0.86%
S&P 500 1514.4 -1.48 -0.10%
DJ Wilshire 5K 15310.88 -26.82 -0.17%
Russell 2000 806.11 -4.74 -0.58%
Nasdaq 100 2161.52 -27.07 -1.24%

Comments: After today's earnings announcement from MSFT, the Nazz should rally into Friday and I bet it comes even with last Friday's close. Right now its week to date performance is -1.43%. All the other major indexes are showing a 1.11% to .90% decline from last Friday. Will we rally across the board tomorrow and come even or end with a gain over last week? Considering the horrendous earnings reports this week, with a few exceptions, its a pretty resilient market. If the Fed cuts next week this market should push to new highs again. End of October/early November have been positive historically for the S&P virtually without fail.

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 1,592 1,227 631
Declining 1,687 1,742 578
Unchanged 108 128 86
Total 3,387 3,097 1,295
New 52 Wk High 141 93 46
New 52 Wk Low 106 147 25
Total Volume 1,601,401,800 2,700,953,987 49,424,935
Advancing Vol 758,952,890 670,063,586 28,047,950
Declining Vol 822,576,570 2,005,455,688 19,941,085
Unchanged Vol 19,872,340 25,434,713 1,315,000

Comments: More new 52 week lows> 52 week lows for Nasdaq. Volume is up. Volume up & price down is bearish trend.

Futures Last Change
Crude Oil 90.9 0.44
Natural Gas, Dec 7.775 -0.041
Gold, Dec. 777.5 6.5

Comments: The news of the day was Iran and sanctions. This carried oil to close above $90 for the first time. $100 oil is now in scope. Most oil executives believe none of the fundamentals warrant oil to be this high and that its mostly been run up by the financial maneuvering of hedge funds. A Tesoro executive on Fast Money tonight felt $60 oil was more the norm. Expect a big fall...sometime. Its been on everyone's radar for weeks now.

From Briefing.com:
Moving the Market Sector Watch
Crude oil prices top $90

Rumor AIG will take a large write-down and subsequent refutal of the rumor

September durable orders down 1.7% (+1.5 consensus)

Weekly inital jobless claims drop to 331k (320k consensus)

September new home sales up 4.8% to a 770k annualized rate, after a sharply lower revision to the August reading
Strong: coal & consumable fuels; gas utilities; computer storage & peripherals; healthcare services; oil & gas refineries; construction & engineering; education services; human resources & employment services; fertilizer & agriculture chemicals; auto parts &

Weak: broadcast & cable TV; construction & farm machines; semiconductor equipment; metal & glass; healthcare tech; railroads; multi-line insurance companies; building products; hotels; movies & entertainment; airlines



Anyone watching the stock market all day, every day, has plenty of reason to be tired this week. Aside from all of the earnings news, the manic nature of the trading alone has been enough to put you on bed rest for a while. Thursday was certainly no exception as we once again witnessed another large sell-off only to see the stock market come barreling back in afternoon trading (my comment - isn't it funny that on both days at around 2pm the "magical" rebound occurred?)

At their lows for the day, reached right around 2:00 ET, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were down 127, 40, and 15 points, respectively. What doesn't show up in those figures, though, are the gains that were registered in the early going. For added perspective, then, note that the swings between the high and low points for the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P were 193, 54 and 23 points, respectively.

The initial move higher was fueled by encouraging earnings news from the likes of Motorola (MOT 19.30, +0.75), Aetna (AET 55.99, +3.09), Express Scripts (ESRX 60.94, +3.57) and Estee Lauder (EL 44.72, +1.40). Those companies, and others, helped offset disappointments from companies like Symantec (SYMC 18.50, -2.52), Dow Chemical (DOW 43.66, -0.32) and MBIA, Inc. (MBI 46.99, -8.20).

Buyers didn't really pick up their efforts, though, until the September new home sales report hit the wires at 10:00 ET and helped mitigate the disappointment that followed weaker than expected durable orders and initial claims data.

The headline of note was that new home sales increased 4.8% from August to an annualized rate of 770K units. The rally that followed the report, though, was certainly questionable when taking into account that the level of new home sales was in line with the consensus estimate and that it only showed growth because the prior month's report showed a 7.6% downward revision to an annualized rate of 735K units.

In due time, the new home sales enthusiasm faded and sellers returned in earnest upon hearing a rumor that Dow component AIG (AIG 61.79, -2.05) would soon be announcing a large write-down.

The speculation surrounding AIG hit other financial stocks hard. At one point the S&P financial sector was down 2.3% Oil prices surging past $90 per barrel on supply concerns and news that the U.S. imposed new sanctions against Iran exacerbated the selling pressure.

Things turned on a dime, however, as the rumors surrounding a potential AIG write-down got shot down. That paved the way for buyers to return to the action and they did so with some conviction as larger losses were pared considerably.

The comeback effort was a broad-based affair. The financial sector (-0.6%) played an influential role, but at the end of the day, it still underperformed the broader market as did the consumer discretionary (-0.9%), technology (-0.3%), industrials (-0.5%) and telecom services (-0.6%) sectors.

The utility sector (+2.0%) was the only sector to gain more than 1.0%, but its small weighting in the S&P meant it didn't have the pull to make a bigger difference. The energy (+0.6%), health care (+0.4%), consumer staples (+0.4%) and materials (+0.5%) sectors were also among the leadership.

Separately, the Treasury market lost some ground, but nothing too significant. The 10-year note slipped 7 ticks, bringing its yield up to 4.37%.

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