Where we stand now since the rally began 11 days ago:
| Index | % Chg |
| DJ Industrials | 7.50% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 6.86% |
| S&P 500 | 7.53% |
| DJ Wilshire 5K | 7.56% |
| Russell 2K | 7.49% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 8.42% |
Here is how much further each index needs to go in order to hit its 52-week high:
| DJ Industrials | 3.32% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 4.96% |
| S&P 500 | 3.81% |
| DJ Wilshire 5K | 3.94% |
| Russell 2K | 7.59% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 4.69% |
The above data is quite fascinating...especially when you consider that technology (Nasdaq 100) was very strong and leading the charge heading into the fall. With the S&P and the Dow 30 the closest to their previous highs...and given the economic backdrop, what does this say? If the economy is truly going into a recession then Q4 earnings in January should start to reflect that ugly truth. I have a sense that the market is way ahead of the economy and the current rally will be short-lived. There may in fact be a rally through Christmas but I wonder if it can really keep itself together as it enters 2008 and Q4 earnings start to hit. By then the consumer could also be retrenching.
But if the Fed cuts by 50bp tomorrow it could be off to the races in the short term. Putting off doomsday until 2008. Like climbing a mountain, any new highs will be a false summit.
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