Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Market Summary 12-5-07

Index Last Change % Chg
DJ Industrials 13444.96 196.23 1.48
Nasdaq Comp 2666.36 46.53 1.78
S&P 500 1485.01 22.22 1.52
DJ Wilshire 5K 14963.52 211.33 1.43
Russell 2000 765.64 13.58 1.81
Nasdaq 100 2099.31 40.25 1.95

Issues NYSE Nasdaq Amex
Advancing 2,435 1,969 807
Declining 836 971 453
Unchanged 78 125 81
Total 3,349 3,065 1,341




New 52 Week High 87 41 16
New 52 Week Low 83 143 59




Total 1,432,331,220 2,285,678,104 42,216,716
Advancing 1,144,112,980 1,576,526,778 28,422,516
Declining 277,789,640 681,222,996 12,887,100
Unchanged 10,428,600 27,928,330 907,100

Futures Last Chg
Crude Oil 87.34 -0.98
Natural Gas 7.205 0.05
Gold, Feb 801.1 -6.5

From Briefing.com:
Moving the Market Sector Watch
ADP private employment better than expected, may indicate Friday's payroll number might top expectations

OPEC decides not to raise output; Crude inventories show a larger draw than expected

Moody's rings some warnings on bond insurers

ISM Services close to in-line with expectations; November factory orders better than expected
Strong: industrial REITs; human resources & employment services; residential REITs; systems software; diversified metals & mining; specialty consumer services; homebuilding; construction & engineering; specialized finance; multi-line insurance

Weak: broadcast & cable TV; auto retail; auto parts & equipment; food distribution; apparel retail

The stock market rallied on Wednesday with large-cap tech stocks leading the way, snapping a two-day losing streak. There was some uncertainty late in the trading day, but the indices finished near their best levels of the session following a late-day surge.

A bullish bias was present in the early-going as investors banked on at least a 25 basis point cut to the fed funds rate on Dec. 11. Stocks received a further boost from a number of better than expected economic reports.

The economic report receiving the most attention today was the ADP employment estimate. The reading showed that November private payrolls increased by a very strong 189,000, more than triple the consensus expectation. This estimate is often well off the mark, but as a general indicator has been fairly good. It suggests Friday's nonfarm payroll increase will be above the current median forecast from economists of 70,000.

Third quarter productivity was revised upward to a 6.3% annual rate from a previously reported 4.9%.

Other good news comes in the form of November factory orders. This figure, which comprises the already released durables orders (with a revision) and nondurables orders, was up 0.5%.

The November national ISM survey of non-manufacturing conditions dipped to 54.1 from 55.8 in October. This compares to an expected level of about 55. A reading above 50 is intended to reflect growth. That isn't a significant variance from expectations.

The rally was nearly derailed midday,though, after Moody's came out and rang some alarm bells regarding bond insurers' capital positions and the potential for MBIA's (MBI 27.42, -5.21) triple-A credit rating to be cut. Stocks traded in a choppy manner following the report, but eventually staged a late day comeback. However, shares of insurers MBIA and Ambac (ABK 23.52, -2.30) still got clipped.

In corporate news, following in Freddie Mac's (FRE 34.67, +2.36) footsteps, Fannie Mae (FNM 36.13, +0.95) said last night it will take steps to shore up its capital position as it prepares to deal with ongoing challenges in the housing market.

Specifically, Fannie Mae will cut its quarterly dividend, beginning in the first quarter, from $0.50 to $0.35, and it will sell $7 billion in non-convertible preferred stock in one or more offerings in December.

Of the nine sectors trading higher, tech (+2.5%) showed the most strength. The sector benefited from the outperformance of several large-cap tech names, in part due to Intel (INTC 27.22, +0.91) getting upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel based on evidence of above average seasonal personal computer demand going into 2008. Financials (+2.0%) finished second.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.3%) was the main laggard after shares of Comcast (CMCSA 18.92, -1.81) got pummeled after the company lowered its revenue guidance.

Oil traded in a choppy manner and finally finished down $0.83 at $87.49. Oil spiked overnight on news that OPEC decided not to increase output due to economic concerns. Later in the day, the government's weekly energy report showed inventories dropped much larger than expected. Normally, it would be expected that oil would rally on these bullish reports. While oil prices held up following the report, they eventually pulled back as the day progressed and ended the session lower.

Presumably, the slide was due to both distillate and gasoline inventories showing larger than expected builds, and the key oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, also showing a build. In addition, there was speculation that Saudi Arabia will increase crude output despite the OPEC decision. The dollar index spiked 1.06% today, which may have also aided in pushing oil prices lower.

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